IEA: "April Will Be Much Worse Than March" — Full Energy Crisis Report Analysis

The International Energy Agency has released its most alarming assessment yet of the 2026 global energy crisis, with Executive Director Fatih Birol calling it the worst energy disruption in history — worse than the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution energy shock, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine gas crisis combined.

Speaking on the "In Good Company" podcast, Birol was unequivocal: global supply losses now total approximately 12 million barrels per day — compared with 5 million barrels per day during each of the 1973 and 1979 crises. With April supply from the Gulf expected to be near zero due to complete Hormuz closure, the world is entering the most severe phase of the crisis.

IEA Oil Market Report — March 2026 Key Findings

The IEA's March 2026 Oil Market Report, published in late March, contains the most comprehensive picture of the crisis's impact on global energy markets. Here are the key findings:

• Supply disruption scale: The conflict is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Global oil supply losses total approximately 11-12 million barrels per day.
• LPG impact severe: Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. These flows are now at a near standstill. LPG use in cooking and heating — especially in India and East Africa — is specifically identified as being "at risk."
• Demand cut forecast: Global oil consumption growth forecast for 2026 cut by 210 kb/d to 640 kb/d. March and April demand reduced by 1 mb/d versus previous estimates.
• Price trajectory: Brent crude peaked above $120/barrel before easing to around $92/barrel at time of writing — still $20/barrel above pre-war levels.
• Refinery damage: More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the Gulf region has already shut due to attacks and lack of viable export outlets.
• Qatar LNG damage: QatarEnergy confirmed 12 Mtpa of its 77 Mtpa LNG facility is damaged and possibly unavailable for the next 3-5 years.
• Jet fuel and diesel acute: Birol specifically identified jet fuel and diesel as the most acute shortages — "the biggest problem today."

IEA "Sheltering From Oil Shocks" — The 10 Emergency Measures Explained

In response to the crisis, the IEA published a landmark report titled "Sheltering From Oil Shocks" detailing 10 demand-side measures that governments, businesses and households can implement immediately. These are based on the IEA's decades of expertise and proven examples from previous crises.

400 Million Barrel Reserve Release — Is It Enough?

On March 11, 2026, IEA member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles — the largest coordinated reserve release in the agency's 50-year history, dwarfing even the releases during the Gulf War (1991) and post-Hurricane Katrina (2005).

However, the IEA itself has acknowledged this is insufficient. The 400 million barrels covers approximately 33-35 days of the supply shortfall at current rates. With the Hormuz closure now extending into April with no resolution in sight, the IEA is actively "assessing the market on a daily, if not hourly basis" to determine whether a second release is warranted.

Total global observed oil inventories stood at 8.2 billion barrels in January 2026 — their highest level since February 2021. This strategic buffer provides some room for manoeuvre, but it is finite. If the crisis extends beyond 3-4 months, inventory drawdown could create severe market tightness even beyond current price levels.

Country Response Tracker — How Governments Are Implementing IEA Measures

The IEA has been tracking policy responses globally. Here is a summary of which measures countries have adopted:

Country	WFH	Speed Limits	Odd-Even	Flight Cuts	Cooking Switch	Status
🇵🇭 Philippines	✅ Mandated	—	—	✅ Grounded	—	Critical
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	✅ Encouraged	—	✅ Active	—	—	Critical
🇵🇰 Pakistan	✅ 50% mandate	—	—	—	—	Critical
🇦🇺 Australia	✅ Proposed	✅ Proposed	✅ Proposed	—	✅ IEA Rec	Severe
🇻🇳 Vietnam	✅ Expanded	—	—	✅ -20%	—	Severe
🇹🇭 Thailand	✅ Urged	—	—	✅ Restricted	—	Severe
🇮🇩 Indonesia	✅ Fridays	—	—	—	🌿 Biofuel	Severe
🇰🇷 South Korea	—	—	✅ Weekly limits	—	—	Severe
🇮🇳 India	—	—	—	—	✅ LPG limits	Monitoring
🇪🇬 Egypt	✅ 1 day/week	—	—	—	—	Severe

IEA Financial Support Recommendations for Governments

Beyond the 10 operational measures, the IEA's "Sheltering From Oil Shocks" report also details how governments should structure financial support to consumers. Key recommendations include:

• Targeted rather than blanket subsidies: The IEA warns against universal price caps (like in 2022 post-Ukraine) which cost governments enormously and can increase consumption. Targeted support for vulnerable households is preferred.
• UK model: The UK announced £53 million to support vulnerable heating oil customers — a targeted approach the IEA cites as best practice.
• Japan model: Japan made targeted cash payments to 16 million low-income households, learning from COVID-19 when universal payments increased energy consumption.
• Philippines model: PHP 5,000 cash subsidy ($80) to 139,000 tricycle drivers — targeted at those most impacted by fuel price rises.
• New Zealand model: $50 NZD weekly payment to low-to-middle income working families with children.
• Pakistan consideration: Pakistan considering cash transfers to low-income households similar to its COVID-19 fuel support scheme.

Long-Term IEA Recommendations — Structural Crisis Solutions

Beyond immediate measures, the IEA strongly emphasises that the 2026 crisis has exposed the structural vulnerability of fossil-fuel dependent economies. Long-term recommendations include accelerating EV adoption (particularly two- and three-wheelers), expanding charging infrastructure, investing in renewable energy capacity, and building strategic reserves to the IEA-required 90-day minimum — which most Asian nations currently fail to meet.